Macroeconomic Forecasts

link to Great Recession web page (links to selective news about the current state of the economy)

  Surv. of Prof. Forecasters (Nov) Wells Fargo (Nov) WSJ (Nov) Fed (June) CBO (Aug) OMB (Aug)
Economic growth, 2009H2 3% 2.8% 3.2%      
economic growth, 2010 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1 to 3.3% 2.8% 2.9%
unemployment
(end of 2009)
 10.2% 10.2% 10.3% 9.8 to 10.1% 9.3% (avg) 10%
unemployment
(end of 2010)
 9.8% 10.8% 9.6% 9.25% (Sep) 10.2% (avg) 9.7%
peak unemployment 10.2% 10.8%     10.4% >10%
core inflation, 2009 1.4% 1.6% 1.9% (overall) 1.3 to 1.6% 1.7% 0.5% (overall)
core inflation, 2010 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% (overall) 1 to 1.5% 0.8% 1.4% (overall)

Recent Forecasts

Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - Nov 2009): economic growth = 2.3% in fourth quarter of 2009,  2.5% in 2010, 2.7% in 2011; core inflation (CPI) = 1.7% in 2010 and 2011; unemployment rate averages 10.1% in 2010 (peaks at 10.4% in early 2010, declines to 9.6% in 2011); total job loss  of 7.5 million
OECD: US Outlook, OECD Economic Outlook (Nov 2009): forecast for US - economic growth = 2.5% for 2010, 2.8% for 2011; unemployment rate averages 9.9% in 2010, 9.1% in 2011; inflation = 1.7% in 2010, 1.3% in 2011
Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey November 2009): economic growth = 2.7% in fourth quarter, 2.4% in 2010, 3.1% in 2011; core inflation (PCE) = 1.4% in 2009, 1.3% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011 (overall PCE inflation = 1.1% in 2009, 1.7% in 2010, 2.1% in 2011); unemployment rate =10.2% in fourth quarter 2009 and first quarter 2010; average unemployment rate = 10% in 2010, 9.2% in 2011, 8.3% in 2012
Economic forecasting survey, November 2009 (WSJ): economic growth = 2.9% in fourth quarter of 2009 and 2.9% in 2010; unemployment at 10.3% by end of 2009, 9.6% at end of 2010; inflation = 1.8% in 2010
Morgan Stanley: economic growth =3% in fourth quarter 2009, unemployment peaks at 10.5% in first quarter 2010, inflation = 1.4% in 2010, Fed increases interest rate in third quarter 2010
Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast - Nov 2009): economic growth 2% in fourth quarter of 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and 2.4% in 2011; core PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2009, 1.3% in 2010 and 1.6% in 2011 (note: CPI inflation = -0.4% in 2009); unemployment rate rising to 10.8% in the third quarter of 2010 and remaining there until Spring 2011 declining to 10.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 (slow job creation beginning Summer 2010)
Reuters survey (November 2009): economic growth = 3% in 4th quarter, 2.5% in first quarter 2010; unemployment peaks at 10.5%; core inflation declines to 1.2% in 2010
Bloomberg (November 2009): economic growth = 3% in 4th quarter; unemployment exceeds 10% for first half of 2010
Quarterly economic survey (USA Today): economic growth = 2.8 in first half of 2010, 3% in second half; unemployment peaks at 10.2% in first quarter 2010, 9.6% by end of 2010; inflation averages 1.8% in 2010
IMF (October 2009): chart includes forecasts of economic growth, inflation, budget deficits, trade and financial flows for most countries; US economic growth = 1.5% in 2010, 2.8% in 2011; unemployment = 10.1% in 2010; inflation = 1.6% in 2010, 2% in 2011
NABE consensus forecast: September 2009 (CNBC): unemployment reaches 10% in beginning of 2010, 9.5% by end of 2010; economic growth resumes in second half of 2009 = 2.9%; economic growth for all of 2009 = -2.5% and 2.6% in 2010; federal funds rate raised in late Spring 2010, rising to 1% by end of 2010
 
CBO (Aug 2009 - see pp4-5): economic growth (end of year comparisons) = -1% in 2009, 2.8% in 2010, 3.8% in 2011; unemployment = 9.3% in 2009 (peak of 10.4% in mid 2010), 10.2% in 2010, 9.1% in 2011, core PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2009, 0.8% in 2010, 0.5% in 2011
Fed Forecast as of June 2009: economic growth = -1.5% to -1% in 2009, 2.1% to 3.3%  in 2010 and 3.8 to 4.6% in 2011 (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter while other forecasts compare yearly averages); unemployment rate = 9.8 to 10.1 in 2009, 9.5 to 9.8% in 2010 and 8.4 to 8.8% in 2011 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); inflation as measured by core PCE deflator of 1.3% to 1.6% in 2009, 1% to 1.5% in 2010 and 0.9 to 1.7% in 2011
Livingston Survey (latest survey - June 2009): economic growth = -3.9% for the first half of 2009, 1.1% for the second half of 2009 and 2.6% in first half of 2010; unemployment rate = 9.9% in Dec 2009 and 9.8% in June 2010; inflation (CPI) = -0.7% for 2009 and 1.7% for 2010
 
Commentaries on Economic Conditions
Beige Book (Fed)
Haver Analytics: up-to-date commentary on recently released economic data

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan Area;  Florida
Economic Calendar (Briefing.com)

 

last updated: 11/20/2009