The Great Recession
(a work in progress)

link to economic forecast page
link to some of the best articles about the
financial/economic crisis
Updates for week of Nov 16
Updates for week of Nov 9
Updates for week of Nov 2
Updates for week of Oct 26
Updates for week of Oct 19
Updates for week of Oct 12
Updates for week of Oct 5
Updates for week of Sep 28
-
September jobs report: a scorecard (WSJ); analysis by
haver.com;
Economists react (WSJ)
- Unemployment rate rises to 9.8%, loss of 263,000 jobs
- benchmark revision likely to show a loss of 8 million
jobs (7.2 million w/o revision) since start of recession; 5.8% of total
(most since troops came home after WW2)
- benchmark revision likely to show a loss of 8 million
private sector jobs, 7% of total; loss of almost 600,000 jobs in last decade
(post WW2 record), likely to be more than 1.4 million after benchmark
revisions
- (note: government revises employment data in Jan 2010
once new information becomes available; it released its
estimate of those revisions today)
- broader measure of unemployment rises to 17%, long-term
unemployment rate rises to 5.4%, hours worked declines by 3% in third
quarter
- labor force declines by more than 500,000 in September,
otherwise unemployment rate would exceed 10%
-
Global recovery underway, but likely to be slow (IMF): includes forecast
of 1.5% growth in US in 2010
- Q2 GDP fell a lessened
0.7%; hesitant profits recovery continues (haver.com)
Updates for week of Sep 21
Updates for week of Sep 14
Updates for week of Sep 7
-
Fed's Beige book: economic reports from around the country (signs of
stabilization)
Updates for week of Aug 31
Updates for week of Aug 24
-
video of Milton Friedman describing what the Fed should have done to
prevent the Great Depression (hint: quantitative easing)
Updates for week of Aug 17
Updates for week of Aug 10
Updates for week of Aug 3
-
Job losses moderate in July (marketwatch): unemployment rate = 9.4%, loss of 247,000 jobs in July;
analysis by haver.com
-
economists react (wsj)
- pros:
- hours worked stopped declining (typically sign of end of
recession)
- underemployment rate declines to 16.3%
- cons:
- distorted by seasonally adjustment; loss of 119,000
service jobs but only 52,000 manufacturing jobs
- over 400,000 left the labor force in July, otherwise
unemployment rate would be 9.6%
- still losing full-time jobs and gaining part-time jobs
- initial reaction: a positive report with signs of some
stabilization of labor market (particularly hours worked)
- loss of 4.8% of jobs since start of recession (6.7
million jobs)
- number of private sector jobs created in last 10 years is
121,000
-
US tax revenue drops most since 1932 (Yahoo-Finance)
Updates for week of July 27
Updates for week of July 20
Updates for week of July 13
Updates for week of July 6
Updates for week of June 29
- US payrolls decline by
467,000 as jobless rate rises to 9.5% (haver.com)
-
Economsits react: Jobs the 'Achilles Heel' of recovery (WSJ)
- total job loss since start of recession = 6.46
million, 4.68% of total (percent decline is worst since 1949, which included a
one-month nation-wide steel strike; 1948-49 loss was 4.5% excluding the
strike)
- number of private sector jobs created in last 10
years (June 1999-June 2009) = 559,000 (good chance July 1999-July 2009
will equal 0; has not occurred since Depression)
- loss of 9 million full-time jobs (7.35% of total;
previous high was 4% in 1981-82; records dating back to 1968)
- loss of 3.4 million private service sector jobs
(-3.65% of total; previous high was 2.5% in 1957-58)
- hours worked declined by 7.9% annualized rate in second quarter
compared to 8.9% in first quarter (total decline = 8.2% since beginning
of recession; previous high was 7% in 1974-75 (records date back to
1964))
- long-term unemployment rate (15+ weeks): 5.1%
(post-WW2 high prior to this recession was 4.2% in 1982-83)
- archive for Jan-June 2009
- archive for 2008