The Great Recession

(a work in progress)

link to economic forecast page

link to some of the best articles about the financial/economic crisis

Updates for week of Nov 16

• The nations unemployed (WSJ)
• Florida employment report (October): Florida unemployment rate = 11.2% in October, metro Orlando = 11.4%
• America's fiscal deficit: stemming the tide (Economist)

Updates for week of Nov 9

• Entitlement spending and the long-term budget outlook (CBO)

Updates for week of Nov 2

• Unemployment hits 10.2% in October (Marketwatch); analysis by haver.com; Economists react: conflicting signals from jobs report (WSJ)
  • unemployment rate = 10.2%; broad measure of unemployment = 17.5%; long-term unemployment = 5.7%; loss of 190,000 jobs
• Economists react: Fed issues "guidelines" for rate hikes (WSJ)
• Fed to maintain low rates even as economy recovers (CNBC)

Updates for week of Oct 26

• US personal income slips marginally and spending declines (haver.com)
• GDP report (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • economic growth = 3.5%
  • automobile production added 1.66% to growth, inventories added 0.94% to growth; housing added 0.53% to growth
  • concerns: strong areas were due to government programs and may not be sustainable: cash for clunkers, homebuyer tax credit
    • Don't break out the champagne yet: cause for concern in GDP (WSJ)
  • positive: inventories declined more than anticipated (-$130.8b) which means they may add more to growth than previously expected in the coming quarters
  • Economists react: GDP puts last bit of dirt on Great Recession's grave? (WSJ)

Updates for week of Oct 19

• America's public debt (Economist)
• The nation's unemployed (WSJ): interactive map of state unemployment
• Caterpillar: double-dip unlikely as long as central banks don't overreact (WSJ)
• China's dollar problem (Ken Rogoff)

Updates for week of Oct 12

• Florida's September unemployment official release: Florida 11%, Orlando 11.5%
• Recession ends in 79 metro areas, index shows (MSNBC/Moody's economy.com): includes monthly index since 1994 to assess whether metro area is in recession as well as forecast when each state will escape the recession; note: predicts Florida exits the recession in third quarter 2010
• Constrained lenders and wary borrowers explain falling levels of credit in America (Economist)
• Florida's economic dashboard (Florida Chamber of Commerce)

Updates for week of Oct 5

• Wells Fargo weekly commentary

Updates for week of Sep 28

• September jobs report: a scorecard (WSJ); analysis by haver.com; Economists react (WSJ)
  • Unemployment rate rises to 9.8%, loss of 263,000 jobs
  • benchmark revision likely to show a loss of 8 million jobs (7.2 million w/o revision) since start of recession; 5.8% of total (most since troops came home after WW2)
  • benchmark revision likely to show a loss of 8 million private sector jobs, 7% of total; loss of almost 600,000 jobs in last decade (post WW2 record), likely to be more than 1.4 million after benchmark revisions
    • (note: government revises employment data in Jan 2010 once new information becomes available; it released its estimate of those revisions today)
  • broader measure of unemployment rises to 17%, long-term unemployment rate rises to 5.4%, hours worked declines by 3% in third quarter
  • labor force declines by more than 500,000 in September, otherwise unemployment rate would exceed 10%
• Global recovery underway, but likely to be slow (IMF): includes forecast of 1.5% growth in US in 2010
• Q2 GDP fell a lessened 0.7%; hesitant profits recovery continues (haver.com)

Updates for week of Sep 21

• 6 countries in recovery (CNN-Money)
• Financial crises tend to have long impacts on economy (IMF)

Updates for week of Sep 14

• Bernanke declares recession is very likely over (Marketwatch)
• Global debt clock (Economist): interactive map with information about the national debt for most countries
• If Lehman Brothers had not failed, would the crisis had happened anyway? (Economist)

Updates for week of Sep 7

• Fed's Beige book: economic reports from around the country (signs of stabilization)

Updates for week of Aug 31

• Economists react: improving trend 'can't be denied' (WSJ); analysis by haver.com
• Unemployment rate jumps to 26-year high of 9.7% (Marketwatch)
  • loss of 216,000 jobs; 6.93 million since start of recession (5% of all jobs); loss of 7.9% of all full-time jobs
  • "broad unemployment" rate = 16.8% (includes those working part-time for economic reasons and discouraged workers)
  • loss of 223,000 private sector jobs in the last 10 years (Aug 1999-Aug 2009); loss of 6.1% of all private sector jobs since start of recession
• OECD interim economic outlook (OECD): forecast for second half of 2009, analysis of various global economic trends

Updates for week of Aug 24

• video of Milton Friedman describing what the Fed should have done to prevent the Great Depression (hint: quantitative easing)

Updates for week of Aug 17

• Bernanke's speech: the quick version (WSJ)
• World Economy: U, V or W for recovery (Economist)

Updates for week of Aug 10

• Economists react: back to the drawing board on retail sales (WSJ)
• EMU GDP falls but French and German GDP rise (haver.com)
• Fed keeping some life preservers in the water (WSJ)
• Recovery maybe - but hold the champagne (CNN-Money)
• Central banks must time a good exit (Financial Times): may need to register to read the article
• A President as micromanager: how much detail is enough? (WSJ): a look inside the President's daily meetings on the economy
• China's recovery: is it for real? (Jubak - MSN Money)
• Treasurers' fear of next credit freeze shown in cash hoarding (Bloomberg)

Updates for week of Aug 3

• Job losses moderate in July (marketwatch): unemployment rate = 9.4%, loss of 247,000 jobs in July; analysis by haver.com
• economists react (wsj)
• pros:
  • hours worked stopped declining (typically sign of end of recession)
  • underemployment rate declines to 16.3%
• cons:
  • distorted by seasonally adjustment; loss of 119,000 service jobs but only 52,000 manufacturing jobs
  • over 400,000 left the labor force in July, otherwise unemployment rate would be 9.6%
  • still losing full-time jobs and gaining part-time jobs
• initial reaction: a positive report with signs of some stabilization of labor market (particularly hours worked)
• loss of 4.8% of jobs since start of recession (6.7 million jobs)
• number of private sector jobs created in last 10 years is 121,000
• US tax revenue drops most since 1932 (Yahoo-Finance)

Updates for week of July 27

• Economists react: 'hopefully bottom of recession' (WSJ); Rate of GDP decline slows in Q2 2009 (haver.com)
• GDP declines by 1% in second quarter 2009 (consumption down 1.2%; government added 1.12% to growth)
• Records set by this recession
  • real GDP down 3.9% from peak (second quarter 2008)
  • most consecutive quarters of negative growth (4 straight and 5 out of 6)
  • most consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic purchases (7 straight)
  • nominal GDP down 2.73% from peak
  • consumption down 2% since start of recession
  • investment down 32% since start of recession
  • residential investment down 57% from peak (end of 2005)
  • business investment down 19.6% from peak (second quarter 2008)
  • investment share's of GDP at 11.2%
• Milton Friedman's advice for the Fed: commentary by Friedman about what the Fed should have done in the early stages of the Great Depression; seems like Bernanke has followed Friedman's advice
• Deficit: What caused it, why it matters (Auerbach/Gale, CNN-Money)
• The Great Recession: A downturn sized up (WSJ)
• Rebalancing the world economy: China, the spend is nigh (Economist)
• Rebalancing the world economy: America, dropping the shopping (Economist)

Updates for week of July 20

• The economy has hit bottom (Alan Blinder/WSJ)
• Bernanke gets top marks as investors say economy past worst (Bloomberg)
• On the mend (Economist): discussion of Bernanke's testimony before House committee including the exit strategy
• The Fed's exit strategy (Ben Bernanke)

Updates for week of July 13

• State unemployment, an interactive guide (WSJ): Florida unemployment rate = 10.6%, Orlando = 10.8%, highest unemployment is in Michigan, 15.2%
• Broad unemployment across the US (NY Times)
• The consequences of big government (Robert Samuelson)

Updates for week of July 6

• White House ponders Bernanke's future (WSJ): 43 of 46 economists surveyed favored his reappointment as chair of the Fed (term expires Jan 31, 2010)
• Turning a corner? (NY Times): very creative chart examining business cycles over the last 40 years; figure 9 is particularly interesting in showing the accuracy of OECD leading indicators (which indicates the recession is likely to moderate in the coming months)
• IMF sees stronger global rebound from '09 recession (Bloomberg): US economic growth = 0.8% in 2010, global economic growth = 2.5% in 2010
• Stimulus: where's the $787 billion? (BusinessWeek)

Updates for week of June 29

• US payrolls decline by 467,000 as jobless rate rises to 9.5% (haver.com)
• Economsits react: Jobs the 'Achilles Heel' of recovery (WSJ)
  • total job loss since start of recession = 6.46 million, 4.68% of total (percent decline is worst since 1949, which included a one-month nation-wide steel strike; 1948-49 loss was 4.5% excluding the strike)
  • number of private sector jobs created in last 10 years (June 1999-June 2009) = 559,000 (good chance July 1999-July 2009 will equal 0; has not occurred since Depression)
  • loss of 9 million full-time jobs (7.35% of total; previous high was 4% in 1981-82; records dating back to 1968)
  • loss of 3.4 million private service sector jobs (-3.65% of total; previous high was 2.5% in 1957-58)
  • hours worked declined by 7.9% annualized rate in second quarter compared to 8.9% in first quarter (total decline = 8.2% since beginning of recession; previous high was 7% in 1974-75 (records date back to 1964))
  • long-term unemployment rate (15+ weeks): 5.1% (post-WW2 high prior to this recession was 4.2% in 1982-83)

archive for Jan-June 2009

archive for 2008