The Economist
August 5, 2000
The Dawn of Micropower
THOMAS EDISON was a man of great foresight,
but
who would have thought he could have been more
than
100 years ahead of his time? When he set up his
first
heat-and-electricity plant near Wall Street in
1882, he
imagined a world of micropower. Edison thought
the best
way to meet customers needs would be with
networks of
nimble, decentralised power plants in or near homes
and
offices. What goes around, comes around. After
a century
that seemed to prove Edison wrongwith power
stations
getting ever bigger, and the transmission grids
needed to
distribute their product ranging ever widerlocal
generation for local consumption is back in fashion.
There are several reasons for this. One is market
liberalisation. About half of Americas state
governments
have now forced their erstwhile electricity monopolies
to
face competition. In the European Union, a directive
that
took effect in 1999 ordered member governments
to open
up part of their wholesale market for electricity.
Many
developing countries, too, from India to Argentina,
have
embraced deregulation and privatisation.
Small, local power plants offer a cheap way
into such
markets. Even if the power they produce is more
costly at
sourcewhich it often isthey do not
suffer huge
transmission losses when sending it to consumers.
On top
of that, the surplus heat they generate can be
employed for
useful purposes, such as warming buildings, whereas
that
from big generators located in the middle of the
countryside
is usually wasted. The result is that local power
generation
has now become economically competitive.
A second reason for the rise of micropower is
environmentalism. Ever-higher emission standards
have
made it unattractive to build new coal-fired plants
in the
rich world. America still gets more than half of
its electricity
from coal, but only because many older plants have
been
grandfathered, and so do not have to
meet strict new
emissions standardsa derogation that is almost
certain to
be struck down at some point. Europe has been even
more
aggressive than America in pushing industry to
adopt
cleaner forms of power generation. And microgenerators
are exceedingly clean. The worst of them burn natural
gasa reasonably benign fuel. Others use hydrogen
and
sunlight, both environmentalists dreams.
A third, increasingly important reason is the
demand for
reliable, uninterrupted power. Karl Stahlkoph,
the head of
the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), an
industry-financed American research body, reckons
that
micropower will take off in America, where brownouts
and
blackouts are an ever-increasing problem, as much
because it is under its owners control as
for any other
reason.
These three things have stimulated the search
for small,
clean, reliable and above all cheap generating
technologies.
And such technologies are now emerging, fuelled
by a
surge in venture-capital investment (see chart)
and the
prediction that, within a decade, the market for
such
equipment may be more than $60 billion a year.
Powerful choices
The most dramatic breakthroughs are taking place
in the
field of fuel cells. These devices, which work
by combining
hydrogen with oxygen from the air to produce electricity,
are popular candidates to replace internal-combustion
engines in road vehicles. But they look increasingly
plausible as replacements for power stations, too.
There are several sorts of fuel cell, but all
consist of two
electrodes (an anode and a cathode) separated by
a
material called an electrolyte. In most fuel cells
hydrogen is
fed to the anode, where it is ionised into a proton
and an
electron. The proton makes its way to the cathode
through
the electrolyte, while the electron goes there
the long way
roundvia a wire that leads into whatever
the fuel cell is
powering, and back again. At the cathode, the protons
and
the electrons react with oxygen from the air to
make water
which, to the joy of environmentalists, is the
only waste
product of such a cell.
The leading fuel-cell technology at the moment
is generally
reckoned to be the proton-exchange membrane (PEM)
cell.
In this, the electrolyte is a polymer membrane
coated with
platinum, a metal that acts as a catalyst for the
chemistry
involved.
Ballard Power Systems, a Canadian firm, is the
leading
proponent of PEM technology. Firoz Rasul, its boss,
says
he expects his firms first commercial product
to reach the
market next year. This will be a 1kW generator,
to be
marketed by Coleman, an American outdoor-goods
firm,
for household use. Ballard is also developing a
power unit
with Tokyo Gas, a utility that supplies Japanese
homes with
natural gas. That version would reform
the natural gas
first, by reacting it with steam to release the
hydrogen in it.
This means the exhaust will include carbon dioxide.
But
reformation eliminates the need to supply the cell
with pure
hydrogen, making the whole process cheaper.
A rival to PEMs is the solid-oxide fuel cell.
A leading SOFC
design arranges an electrolyte and two electrode
layers in a
tube. Air flows through the inside of this cell
and hydrogen
past the outside. In this case it is the oxygen
that is ionised
(by heating the air up to 1,000°C), and thus
supplies the
electrons. Although SOFC units have to operate
at higher
temperatures than PEM cells, they can achieve levels
of
efficiency much greater than is now possible with
PEMs.
Siemens Westinghouse, a big power-equipment
firm,
expects to bring SOFCs to market in 2004, at a
price of
$1,500 per kW, dropping quickly to the $1,000 threshold
that is currently achieved by coal-fired power
stations.
And, unlike Ballard with its 1kW units, Siemens
is building
generators capable of producing between 0.3MW and
10MW. These are aimed at industrial customers.
A third variation on the fuel-cell theme is
the alkaline fuel
cell. This requires two porous electrodes, separated
by an
electrolyte composed of potassium hydroxide. ZeTek
Power, a British firm that is due to go public
early next
year, is leading the development of this technology.
Nicholas Abson, the firms chief executive,
insists that his
technology is cheaper, easier to make and more
practical
than either SOFC or PEM cells. Unlike SOFC, alkaline
cells
work at relatively low temperatures. Unlike PEM
cells, they
do not rely on platinum catalysts. ZeTek, according
to Mr
Abson, has perfected the use of cheap metal-oxide
catalysts that will help to bring the cost of its
stationary
fuel-cell systems below $500 per kW within 18 months.
Less is more
Fuel cells are a nifty idea, but they suffer
from one serious
disadvantage: that the world is not set up to deliver
hydrogen cheaply. Technologists are working on
this
problem. Hydrogen for Ballards cells is stored
in
substances called metal hydrides, which can absorb
large
quantities of the gas. But systems that can make
use of
existing fuel-delivery infrastructures are likely
to have a
head startas Ballard has conceded in its
deal with Tokyo
Gas.
A second novel micropower technology, however,
is
ideally suited to natural gas. This is the microturbine.
The
clever thing about a microturbineas opposed
to the big,
clunky sort of turbine that is used in traditional
power
stationsis that it has only one moving part.
This is a
high-speed compressor-cum-rotor that spins at up
to
100,000 revolutions a minute.
The near-absence of moving parts means that
microturbines are cheap to operate and maintaincosting
as little as a third of the running costs of a
comparable
diesel generator. Even the problem of lubricating
the one
part that does move seems to have been solved.
Capstone
Turbine, a small American firm, has developed a
version of
the device that uses sophisticated air bearings
which
require no liquid lubrication. Capstone, unlike
many other
companies in the microturbine market, is already
selling its
productsshipping several thousand a year,
ranging in size
from 25kW up to 500kW, to a number of commercial
clients.
The third aspirant micropower technology is
solar energy.
Like fuel cells, which were first dreamed up in
the 1830s,
photovoltaic solar cells have been a long time
coming as an
everyday means of power generation. But they are
almost
there.
Solar cells are composed of a semiconductor
such as
silicon. When the suns rays hit a cells
surface, some of the
semiconductors electrons absorb enough energy
to rush
off towards the other side of the cell, where a
lattice of
delicate wires embedded in the surface gathers
them up
and feeds them into a cable.
The advantages of small solar-power plants are
that they
are clean, reliable and, of course, that the fuel
comes free.
The snag, however, is that the equipment does not.
The
energy from such plants costs between 22 cents
and 36
cents per kW-hour, twice the expected cost for
fuel cells.
Those costs, however, are a quarter of their
level two
decades ago, and look likely to fall further thanks
to
breakthroughs in the manufacture of the silicon
wafers from
which solar cells are cut. AstroPower, the only
integrated
solar-energy firm to be traded publicly, has come
up with a
very-high-speed manufacturing process which it
calls
silicon-film making, and which is akin
to the float glass
method used to make window panes. This should halve
the
cost of wafers, bringing the technologys
price within
spitting distance of its rivals.
Back to the future?
The new micropower technology is undeniably
impressive.
But the big question is whether the market for
distributed
generation will take off this timeover a
century after its
first bloom. One reason to think it might is that
its costs
have come down to economic levels (see chart).
The
trends suggest they will fall still further over
the coming
decade, making micropower attractive to the ordinary
consumer in the rich world.
The greatest potential for micropower, however,
may lie in
helping the 3 billion people in the poor world
who have no
reliable access to electricity. Gary Mittleman,
the boss of
Plug Power (a firm which, in collaboration with
GE, a big
American electrical company, is one of Ballards
rivals in
the PEM market), reckons that it costs between
$1,000 and
$1,500 per kW to build or replace electricity grids
in
developing countries. In such places, micropower
is
already an attractive option. International agencies
such as
the World Bank, as well as private-sector operators
and
non-governmental groups, are devising microfinance
schemes to help bring electricity to the poor in
such
countries as Mongolia and India.
In time, micropower may also change the way
electricity
grids themselves operateturning them from
dictatorial
monopolies into democratic marketplaces. Add a
bit of
information technology to a microgenerator and
it will be
able both to monitor itself and to talk to other
plants on the
grid. Visionaries see a future in which dozens,
even
hundreds, of disparate micropower units are linked
together in so-called microgrids. These
networks could
be made up of all sorts of power units, from solar
cells to
microturbines to fuel cells, depending on the needs
of
individual users. EPRI has feasibility studies
under way to
develop a microprocessor-based converter that will
enable
plug and play connection of any micropower
device to
the power grid.
As energy markets liberalise, online energy-trading
spot
markets develop, and individual consumers win the
right to
select their energy suppliers, some even see the
emergence
of virtual utilities. Microgrids would
allow such firms to
combine the individual efficiency of micropower
plants with
the market power that is gained by bundling together
their
collective generating capacity. Whether run in
competition
with established utilities, or by them, such virtual
utilities
would, according to Goran Lindahl, head of ABB,
a large
European generating-equipment company, result in
greater
system reliability, lower operating costs, reduced
environmental impact and improved overall business.
ABB
is now building microgrids that should be up and
running by
2001 in both Europe and America.
Much as with the Internet, the companies that
develop the
technology to allow the electricity grid to perform
intelligent
metering and switching, and that position themselves
as
air-traffic controllers for these streams
of electrons, will
lead the industry. It is a heady vision for what
many think of
as a dull commodity business. Edison would surely
be
proud of the role that micropower looks likely
to play in the
third century of the electricity age.
LINKS
Click to visit the companies and organisations
mentioned in the article: EPRI,
Nth Power, Ballard
Power Systems
and Capstone Turbine.
Click the terms
for a diagram and short description of solid
oxide fuel
cells
and proton exchange membrane fuel cells, or read
more about microturbines.
ZeTek Power has a page
explaining its alkaline
fuel cell technology, while Power
Plug has a page with good links and a basic overview
of
fuel
cells. Seth Dunns report Micropower: The
Next Electrical Era from the Worldwatch
Institute, or
listen
to the author speak about micropower.
Worldwatch also keeps an excellent page of
micropower
links.